Knowing the impact of a policy in the complex reality before it is implemented? – In Germany, such advanced analyses are not yet widespread. In other EU countries, the UK, the USA and Australia, however, there is already some experience and various examples. This is the result of detailed research in the PoliMod project - feasibility study "Modeling climate adaptation measures: Actors, decisions and effectiveness" revealed. The project is funded by the German Environment Agency (Umweltbundesamt – UBA).
The project team at the IOER has summarised the results of its research in the publication "Qualitative and quantitative modelling of the efficacy of policy instruments". The study provides an overview of various modelling methods that take into account the behaviour of different stakeholders and can therefore represent social and complex processes. In the study, the PoliMod project team outlines a broad spectrum of qualitative and quantitative modelling approaches as well as mixed forms. Examples are taken from scientific research in the field of climate adaptation on the one hand and from the practice of political consulting in areas such as climate protection, transport, urban planning and epidemiology on the other. In addition, the study shows the possibilities and limits of transferability of the approaches to the policy field of climate adaptation.
The study addresses decision-makers in politics as well as researchers. The authors point out that political decision-making processes are becoming increasingly complex. There is a growing need to be able to characterise these non-linear dynamic processes and the impact of policies in it. Modelling complex social systems could make a valuable contribution here. The authors describe in detail the diverse opportunities, but also the limitations of the modelling methods researched. They are already planning another publication. In this, they will deal with the question of the applicability of those modelling methods for various forms of policy advice and will discuss a general modelling processes and compare the modelling methods on a specific example.
Schünemann, Christoph; Sidorova, Anastasiia; Herold, Hendrik (2023): Qualitative and quantitative modelling of the efficacy of policy instruments. Opportunities and limitations for applicability to the field of climate change adaptation. Dessau-Roßlau: Umweltbundesamt (Climate Change | 42/2023).
Dr Christoph Schünemann, e-mail: C.Schuenemann@ioer.de