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MultiRisk

Resilience of the built environment to natural hazards – methods for the identification and evaluation of multifunctional risk reduction concepts

photo collage with four different risk phenomena caused by floods, heat, storms and lightning
Source: IOER-Media

Problem
The built environment – our cities, buildings and human-shaped open spaces – is facing major challenges due to the consequences of global climate change. In particular, the increase in extreme weather events such as heatwaves, heavy rainfall and droughts poses a growing threat. These natural hazards not only threaten human lives, but also property and economic assets It is therefore becoming increasingly important to make cities and regions more resilient to these hazards.

The risks of these natural hazards are interconnected They are interdependent and can trigger and reinforce each other. There are dynamic interactions between and within the risk drivers of hazard, vulnerability and exposure These interactions between the individual hazards and the resulting dynamic development of vulnerability and exposure must be considered holistically in multi-risk assessments.

While a lot is already known about river flooding, there is still a considerable need for research into the risks posed by heat, drought and heavy rainfall. So far, scientific projects have developed methods that usually only focus on individual natural hazards However, there is still a lack of comprehensive approaches that link and systematise different hazards and their effects.

Goals
In the MultiRisk project, we want to develop a comprehensive set of methods to help identify and evaluate measures to reduce risks and their combinations, for example through the interrelated occurrence of various natural hazards. These natural hazards include river floods, heavy rainfall, heat and drought. The aim is to find and evaluate concepts that can simultaneously reduce the impact of at least two of these hazards on a specific receptor (i.e. elements such as people, buildings, infrastructure or vegetation).

graphic display of the project focus
Figure 1: Visualisation of the project focus (in blue) (Source: IOER)

Research questions
Research in the MultiRisk project focuses on the question of how our cities and buildings can be made more resilient to environmental hazards through targeted adaptation measures. These risks arise from environmental changes that are caused or exacerbated by both natural processes and human influences such as climate change.

We are addressing the following specific questions:

  • How can the spatially and temporally interrelated effects of several natural hazards (in particular river floods, heavy rainfall, heat stress and heat waves, dryness and drought) on receptors be systematised? How can spatio-temporal overlaps and mutually intensifying effects be identified for selected receptors, such as buildings?
  • What combination of methods can be used to analyse cause-effect relationships between different natural hazards in relation to individual receptors and across scales?
  • To what extent can existing impact models be extended or coupled to operationalise this description? Which interfaces and scale transitions play a decisive role here?
  • Which indicators are sufficiently meaningful at the various scale levels for stakeholder-specific decision-making processes to reduce multi-risks?
  • What contribution do concepts of multifunctional risk assessment for individual receptors make to the development of adaptation capacities and urban resilience enhancement of the built environment with the aim of risk reduction?

Methods
In the MultiRisk guiding project, we are addressing the challenges described above and using existing methods as a basis for developing new solutions. The MultiRisk project consists of five interconnected work packages (WPs) that complement and build on each other:

overview about project structure
Figure 2: Visualisation of the project structure

WP 1: Conceptual framework
Here we develop a concept that brings together the various methods for analysing natural hazards and their impact on buildings and other important structures. We take into account existing models, tools such as geographical information systems (GIS) and various factors that play a role in the application of these methods. This also includes communication with the target groups in science and practice.

WP 2: Target analysis for multifunctional risk reduction and context conditions
In this work package, we investigate which legal and social framework conditions need to be considered in risk assessment at different levels, such as buildings or urban neighbourhoods. We also identify the most important indicators that help decision-makers to better assess the risks. Specifically, the following steps are planned:

  1. Target analysis for multifunctional risk reduction at the spatial levels of building, neighbourhood and municipality
  2. Identification of suitable indicators for risk assessment for stakeholder-specific decision-making processes

WP 3: Modelling concept for multifunctional risk assessment
Here we are developing a concept for analysing various interrelated natural hazards and their combined effects. We assess which measures are most effective in protecting buildings and cities from these multi-risks and test these receptor-related models in workshops with experts. Specifically, the following steps are planned:

  1. Development of a receptor-related, multifunctional risk assessment concept for multiple natural hazards
  2. Development of a concept for the cross-scale combination of methods for individual natural hazards
  3. A descriptive conceptual analysis of multiple receptors and their interdependencies
  4. Development of indicators for multifunctional risk assessment

WP 4: Application and testing of the method set for a multifunctional risk assessment
In this work package, we first select a suitable use case based on factors such as exposure, vulnerability and data quality. This is then tested to see how well the methods work. Later, we add other relevant use cases to check whether the methods are applicable and transferable in different situations. Our long-term goal is to apply these methods to scenarios where multiple hazards occur simultaneously.

WP 5: Categorising the preliminary project results in the resilience debate
Finally, we categorise the results so far in the broader discussion on urban resilience. We clarify what resilience means in the context of our project and prepare the results for publication.

Term

06/2024-05/2028

Funding

Basic funding

Leibniz Gemeinschaft
[Translate to English:] Dresden concept
TOTAL E-QUALITY

The Leibniz Institute of Ecological Urban and Regional Development is jointly funded by the federal government and the federal states.

FS Sachsen

This measure is co-financed by tax funds on the basis of the budget approved by the Saxon State Parliament.